Sentiment — Indicators and Signals — TradingView

WDAY, ULTA, ABT, TSLA

For Trading August 28th
!
New Highs for NAZ & S&P-500
INITIAL CLAIMS OVER 1MM TIKTOK &WMT?
Today’s market was another split affair with the DJIA +160.35 (.57%) and the NASDAQ -39.72 (.34%), S&P 500 +5.82 (.17%), the Russell +4.37 (.28%), DJ Transport +79 (.71%), with a gain, second day in a row of the VIX also higher 24.47 +1.20 (5.16%). That lost one is both unusual and ominous in my book. A/D was also split with the NYSE 4:3 UP and NASDAQ 9:8 Down with light volume again. Initial claims were again over 1 million with continuing very slightly lower at 14,535,000, but the big number (although it was just preliminary and changeable) was the decline in Q2 GDP -31.7%. Chairman Powell spoke at the virtual Jackson Hole meeting and made the startling comment that he still doesn’t see any inflation and since they haven’t been able to hit their marks, they are reevaluating the actual definition of what they consider inflation! Clearly, he doesn’t go grocery shopping, or buy kids sneakers or school supplies. What a putz! Like that idiot Wilbur Ross who quoted prices at 7-11 for beer and Campbell’s soup. These people have less than no understanding of what it’s like in the real world.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNCWw2by2wI Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/AQ_FSMkj-Fg
SECTORS: The day started with the ABT news of the FDA granting the expedited approval of a $5.00, 15-minute “antigen” test for Covid-19. It is expected that Mr. Trump will announce a deal for $750 million for the manufacture and sale of the test to be ramped up immediately. Never let a good pandemic go to waste during an RNC convention, virtual or not! The stock traded as high as $117 in premarket but could only hit $114 in the real world and while higher on the day, it finished $111.29 +8.10 (7.85%) but nearer the lows. WMT was the power behind the DJIA adding 41 DP’s on the news that it was interested in sharing TIK TOK with MSFT, also a winner adding 38 DP’s too. So, half the net change in those two names. After the close we had numbers from ULTA, a beat top and bottom lines trading to $270.80 and finishing $256.64 +32.69 (14.65%), WDAY also beat and after closing $216.63 +3.01, after adding $20 yesterday on the CRM pop, traded $246 before closing $242.50 +25.87 (12.3%). Also reporting were HPQ 19.36 +.60 (3.1%), GPS 18.50 +1.12 (6%), and VMW 144.68 +1.98 (1.3%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.60, BGS +.19, FLO +.06, CPB +.51, CAG +.24, MDLZ -.23, KHC -.15, CALM +.35, JJSF +3.36, SAFM +6.71, HRL +.03, PPC +.36, SJM -.81, KR -.21 and PBJ $34.40 -.2 (.07%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +.09, ABBV -.11, REGN +2.97, ISRG +9.40, GILD +.02, MYL -.16, TEVA -.12, VRTX +2.84, BHC -.31, INCY +.55, ICPT -.36, LABU -1.18, and IBB $132.67 -.15 (.11%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY -.05, CGC +.03, CRON +.10, GWPH -1.01, ACB +.14, NBEV unch., CURLF +.18, KERN -.15, and MJ $12.34 unchanged.
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +.40, GD +2.36, TXT +.49, NOC +7.59, BWXT -.48, TDY +.88, RTX +.43, and ITA $168.07 +1.46 (.88%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.15, JWN +.25, KSS +.50, DDS +.30, WMT +7.75, TGT -1.93, TJX +.49, RL +.61, UAA +.09, LULU -4.55, TPR +.04, CPRI +.47, and XRT $52.50 -.38 (.72%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -15.61, AMZN -36.34, AAPL -5.19, FB -11.66, NFLX -19.98, NVDA -6.78, TSLA +93.83, BABA -9.01, BIDU -.41, CMG +8.21, BA +3.10, CAT +1.82, DIS +2.33, and XLK $122.40 +.41 (.34%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS ++3.09, JPM +3.61, BAC +.59, MS +1.07, C +1.06, PNC +3.69, AIG +.62, TRV +3.64, AXP +3.60, V +1.40, and XLF $25.26 +.42 (1.69%).
OIL, $43.04 -.35. Oil was higher in today’s trading before we fell to the middle of the day’s range. Some of the gains may be storm related, but gasoline is helping support prices. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $35.80 +.07 (.20%).
GOLD $1,9532.60 -19.90, rose early in the session and moved higher to the 1963 range. I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.59 -19.
BITCOIN: closed $11,270 -210. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.88 -58 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

4:1

For Trading JULY 31st
ALL 4 BIG NAMES BEAT
GILD & EXPE MISS
AAPL 4:1 SPLIT
Today’s market got off to a negative start with Mr. Trump’s tweet about postponing the election because he felt that mail-in voting would foster fraud. Is this guy kidding? Even members of his own party immediately came out in direct opposition to this stupidity. It did cause a downdraft (futures were -200) and we fell to the low of the day of -547 within the first 45 minutes and struggled all day to get back to finish nearer the highs than lows -224.76 (.85%), NASDAQ +44.87 (.43%), S&P 500 -12.12 (.37%), the Russell -5.50 (.37%), and the DJ Transports +.73 (0.0%). The NASDAQ went back to the green by noon and managed to close higher. After the close we had earnings reports and all 4 big names beat and moved higher. Market internals were negative, but not terribly. NYSE was 9:5 down and NASDAQ was 9:7 lower. Volume was slightly higher, but NYSE volume was 3:1 down. Energy, financials and materials were weak while information tech, consumer discretionary, communication services and consumer staples were higher. Only 5 DJIA stocks were higher with AAPL the leader +32 DPs, and V was the big loser -31 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video over the weekend on a day-trade, (actually 2) that I made in AAPL on Friday. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to under what conditions these kind of trades in expiring options make sense. The link is https://youtu.be/qIV0G-hP3aM Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Cq2Q-YnDTfQ Today’s video on the UNG Trade: https://youtu.be/RBWaSke96O8
SECTORS: AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and FB all reported this afternoon and the results were dramatic. After Cramer made the statement that all 4 should be sold since they’ve all had big runups, they all beat, and all rallied hard. Right now (6:35pm) GOOGL is +22.65, AMZN is +174, AAPL is +26 and FB is +16. Only GOOGL didn’t make an all-time high, but it is close. On the downside, GILD missed both earnings and revenues and is trading $70.35 -2.66. EXPE also missed but it is unchanged right now. Tomorrow’s open ought to be exciting. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.50, BGS -.13, FLO -.09, CPB -.83, CAG -.26, MDLZ -1.32, KHC -1.18, CALM -.31, JJSF -2.62, SAFM +.06, HRL -.09, SJM -1.14, PPC -.81, KR -.65 and PBJ $33.28 -.42 (1.24%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.50, ABBV -.16, REGN +3.54, ISRG -.79, GILD -3.14, MYL -.58, TEVA -.29, VRTX +4.08, BHC -.19, INCY +3.95, ICPT +1.10, LABU +3.20, and IBB $137.47 +.85 (.62%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.07, CGC +.02, CRON -.02, GWPH +2.99, ACB -.15, NBEV +.06, CURLF +.02, KERN -.11, and MJ $13.29 +.01 (.08%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT -5.19, GD unch., TXT +.87, NOC +10.99, BWXT -.36, TDY +.56, RTX -1.67 and ITA $158.52 -1.75 (1.09%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.22, JWN -.29, KSS -.66, DDS -.97, WMT -.49, TGT +.90, TJX -.91, RL -1.65, UAA +.37, LULU -.99, TPR -.47, CPRI -.75 and XRT $47.65 -.19 (.40%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +22.65, AMZN +174.47, AAPL +26.94, FB +15.14, NFLX +3.52, NVDA +9.39, TSLA +3.87, BABA +3.26, BIDU -.82, CMG -1.07, CAT -3.83, MSFT +.41, BA -3.45, DIS +.26, and XLK $109.37 +2.23 (2.08%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.81, JPM -2.40, BAC -.32, MS -1.15, C -1.54, PNC -2.34, AIG -.89, TRV -.92, AXP -1.89, V -3.70 and XLF $24.06 -.40 (1.64%).
OIL, $39.92 -1.35. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $36.44 -1.24 (3.29%).
GOLD $1,942.30 -11.10. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,974.00. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $1.97.
BITCOIN: closed $11,145 -95. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.22 -.14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

4:1

For Trading JULY 31st
ALL 4 BIG NAMES BEAT
GILD & EXPE MISS
AAPL 4:1 SPLIT
Today’s market got off to a negative start with Mr. Trump’s tweet about postponing the election because he felt that mail-in voting would foster fraud. Is this guy kidding? Even members of his own party immediately came out in direct opposition to this stupidity. It did cause a downdraft (futures were -200) and we fell to the low of the day of -547 within the first 45 minutes and struggled all day to get back to finish nearer the highs than lows -224.76 (.85%), NASDAQ +44.87 (.43%), S&P 500 -12.12 (.37%), the Russell -5.50 (.37%), and the DJ Transports +.73 (0.0%). The NASDAQ went back to the green by noon and managed to close higher. After the close we had earnings reports and all 4 big names beat and moved higher. Market internals were negative, but not terribly. NYSE was 9:5 down and NASDAQ was 9:7 lower. Volume was slightly higher, but NYSE volume was 3:1 down. Energy, financials and materials were weak while information tech, consumer discretionary, communication services and consumer staples were higher. Only 5 DJIA stocks were higher with AAPL the leader +32 DPs, and V was the big loser -31 DPs.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Cq2Q-YnDTfQ
Today’s video on the UNG Trade: https://youtu.be/RBWaSke96O8
SECTORS: AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and FB all reported this afternoon and the results were dramatic. After Cramer made the statement that all 4 should be sold since they’ve all had big runups, they all beat, and all rallied hard. Right now (6:35pm) GOOGL is +22.65, AMZN is +174, AAPL is +26 and FB is +16. Only GOOGL didn’t make an all-time high, but it is close. On the downside, GILD missed both earnings and revenues and is trading $70.35 -2.66. EXPE also missed but it is unchanged right now. Tomorrow’s open ought to be exciting. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.50, BGS -.13, FLO -.09, CPB -.83, CAG -.26, MDLZ -1.32, KHC -1.18, CALM -.31, JJSF -2.62, SAFM +.06, HRL -.09, SJM -1.14, PPC -.81, KR -.65 and PBJ $33.28 -.42 (1.24%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.50, ABBV -.16, REGN +3.54, ISRG -.79, GILD -3.14, MYL -.58, TEVA -.29, VRTX +4.08, BHC -.19, INCY +3.95, ICPT +1.10, LABU +3.20, and IBB $137.47 +.85 (.62%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.07, CGC +.02, CRON -.02, GWPH +2.99, ACB -.15, NBEV +.06, CURLF +.02, KERN -.11, and MJ $13.29 +.01 (.08%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT -5.19, GD unch., TXT +.87, NOC +10.99, BWXT -.36, TDY +.56, RTX -1.67 and ITA $158.52 -1.75 (1.09%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.22, JWN -.29, KSS -.66, DDS -.97, WMT -.49, TGT +.90, TJX -.91, RL -1.65, UAA +.37, LULU -.99, TPR -.47, CPRI -.75 and XRT $47.65 -.19 (.40%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +22.65, AMZN +174.47, AAPL +26.94, FB +15.14, NFLX +3.52, NVDA +9.39, TSLA +3.87, BABA +3.26, BIDU -.82, CMG -1.07, CAT -3.83, MSFT +.41, BA -3.45, DIS +.26, and XLK $109.37 +2.23 (2.08%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.81, JPM -2.40, BAC -.32, MS -1.15, C -1.54, PNC -2.34, AIG -.89, TRV -.92, AXP -1.89, V -3.70 and XLF $24.06 -.40 (1.64%).
OIL, $39.92 -1.35. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $36.44 -1.24 (3.29%).
GOLD $1,942.30 -11.10. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,974.00. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $1.97.
BITCOIN: closed $11,145 -95. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.22 -.14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Gold and Oil Rally

For Trading JUNE 5th
JUST ANOTHER MANIPULATED DAY
U.S. DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
Today’s market was just another that looked like it was going to have a nice steady decline into some well establish support and take a rest. Then, with just the last 40 minutes left it managed to move from the low of the day -180 or so it rallied straight up to finish the day +11.93 (.05%). Does the Orange Emperor really think that people don’t realize that the Dow is only 30 heavily weighted stocks that are easily manipulated at whim? Not the NASDAQ -67.10 (.69%) OR THE S&P 500 -10.52 (.34%), nobody really cares about the Russell -.03 (0%), or the Transports, which never made a new high since 2018, +134.48 (1.42%). Market internals were just okay with NYSE 4:1 up and the NAZ just 1:1, although volume was up a bit. As far as the manipulation goes, there were 3 big movers, BA +79 DPs, GS +29 and TRV +24DPs. 8 of 11 S&P sectors were lower with the winner’s financials, Industrials, and materials while the biggest losers were utilities, real estate, health-care and information technology. The DJIA was split 16/14, doesn’t even matter which way (down).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Z7KUiEnqLMo
SECTORS: The big news was initial claims up less than expected but still up 1.88million and continuing claims 21,487 vs 20,838. When did it become so “well, it’s not as bad as we thought,” let’s take the NAZ100 to a new high? I mean, the Trade balance was “only up” another $5 billion over last month. On the earnings front we had Smartsheet (SMAR) beat on earnings and revenues but was a touch light on billings for the next Q and they took it down to $47.52 -11.56 (19.6%). Slack (WORK) also beat top and bottom, and gave solid guidance, just not solid enough and they took it to task and sent it from $40.00 to $32.00, pretty harsh, I thought.
On the defensive side, SJM reported too, it too beat but made mention that there might have been some rush buying ahead of the pandemic when PB&J looked like a good idea and sent the stock lower finishing $109.30 -5.29 (4.62%).
And last, I mentioned this in this mornings video, Genius Brands International (GNUS) a firm that produces animated TV for kids has been on a tear. It started in May @ $ .31, by 5/15 it was $1.95 and after a 10 or 11-day consolidation it took off on a 4-day run to 11.73 before closing $6.73 -1.20 after falling to 4.25 during the day.
FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN +4.15, BGS +.38, FLO 0.04, CAG -.47, MDLZ -.80, KHC +.29, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.65, SAFM +1.65, LANC +.67, GO -.83, HRL +.06, SJM -5.39, and PBJ $32.41 -.24 (,76%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -2.95, ABBV +2.11, REGN -5.74, ISRG -8.80, GILD +2.85, MYL +.12, TEVA -.12, VRTX -4.19, BHC +.25, INCY -5.03, ICPY +.33, LABU -2.45, and IBB $131.25 -1.40 (1.06%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.07, CGC +.08, CRON +.27, GWPH -1.23, ACB -.13, PYX -.08, NBEV -.01, CURLF +.01, KERN -.07 and MJ $14.03 -.03 (,21%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT + 1.85, GD +1.58, TXT +2.23, NOC -.21, BWXT -.85, TDY +7.34, RTX +.06, and ITA $178.80 +3.30 (1.88%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M +.40, JWN +2.07, KSS +1.35, DDS -.50, WMT -1.32, TGT -1.48, TJX -.24, RL +.24, UAA +.20, LULU -6.52, TPR +.72, CPRI +2.23, and XRT $43.32 +.14 (.32%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -24.95, AMZN -16.72, AAPL -2.87, FB -3.91, NFLX -7.37, NVDA -.63, TSLA -16.46, BABA -.61, BIDU -3.15, CMG -2.71, CAT +1.87, BA +11.19, DIS +1.51, and XLK $98.90 -.73 (.73%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.58, JPM +2.20, BAC +1.02, MS +1.77, C +2.47, PNC +3.29, AIG +2.06, TRV +3.53, AXP +1.34, V -3.17, and XLF $25.30 +.54 (2.18%).,
OIL, $37.41 +.12. Oil has managed to trade $37.62 today and has run into the 100-day MA and not even blinked. I will be on watch to get back into the USO puts for a move back to $30-31.00. The stocks were mixed and XLE was $41.74 +.01 (.02%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,1727.40 +22.60. After trading 1761 overnight the gold traded down to 1728 and closed near the lows. The action in the US$ is projecting higher prices for the metals, but it certainly didn’t happen today. Support is just below 1721. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM yesterday @ $58.86.
BITCOIN: closed $9,895 +240. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading as low as 8630 last Tuesday we have been clawing our way back toward 10,000. Last night and this morning we traded over $10500 but fell all the way back to the lows. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $11.70 + .39 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:
Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?
If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.
Price stability
If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.
Insurance against market crash
While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia
Doom scenario(s)
Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here
Possible Near term Prospects
The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
submitted by bankeronwheels to Gold [link] [comments]

Gold and Oil Rally

For Trading JUNE 5th
JUST ANOTHER MANIPULATED DAY
U.S. DOLLAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
Today’s market was just another that looked like it was going to have a nice steady decline into some well establish support and take a rest. Then, with just the last 40 minutes left it managed to move from the low of the day -180 or so it rallied straight up to finish the day +11.93 (.05%). Does the Orange Emperor really think that people don’t realize that the Dow is only 30 heavily weighted stocks that are easily manipulated at whim? Not the NASDAQ -67.10 (.69%) OR THE S&P 500 -10.52 (.34%), nobody really cares about the Russell -.03 (0%), or the Transports, which never made a new high since 2018, +134.48 (1.42%). Market internals were just okay with NYSE 4:1 up and the NAZ just 1:1, although volume was up a bit. As far as the manipulation goes, there were 3 big movers, BA +79 DPs, GS +29 and TRV +24DPs. 8 of 11 S&P sectors were lower with the winner’s financials, Industrials, and materials while the biggest losers were utilities, real estate, health-care and information technology. The DJIA was split 16/14, doesn’t even matter which way (down).
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/Z7KUiEnqLMo
SECTORS: The big news was initial claims up less than expected but still up 1.88million and continuing claims 21,487 vs 20,838. When did it become so “well, it’s not as bad as we thought,” let’s take the NAZ100 to a new high? I mean, the Trade balance was “only up” another $5 billion over last month. On the earnings front we had Smartsheet (SMAR) beat on earnings and revenues but was a touch light on billings for the next Q and they took it down to $47.52 -11.56 (19.6%). Slack (WORK) also beat top and bottom, and gave solid guidance, just not solid enough and they took it to task and sent it from $40.00 to $32.00, pretty harsh, I thought.
On the defensive side, SJM reported too, it too beat but made mention that there might have been some rush buying ahead of the pandemic when PB&J looked like a good idea and sent the stock lower finishing $109.30 -5.29 (4.62%).
And last, I mentioned this in this mornings video, Genius Brands International (GNUS) a firm that produces animated TV for kids has been on a tear. It started in May @ $ .31, by 5/15 it was $1.95 and after a 10 or 11-day consolidation it took off on a 4-day run to 11.73 before closing $6.73 -1.20 after falling to 4.25 during the day.
FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN +4.15, BGS +.38, FLO 0.04, CAG -.47, MDLZ -.80, KHC +.29, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.65, SAFM +1.65, LANC +.67, GO -.83, HRL +.06, SJM -5.39, and PBJ $32.41 -.24 (,76%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -2.95, ABBV +2.11, REGN -5.74, ISRG -8.80, GILD +2.85, MYL +.12, TEVA -.12, VRTX -4.19, BHC +.25, INCY -5.03, ICPY +.33, LABU -2.45, and IBB $131.25 -1.40 (1.06%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.07, CGC +.08, CRON +.27, GWPH -1.23, ACB -.13, PYX -.08, NBEV -.01, CURLF +.01, KERN -.07 and MJ $14.03 -.03 (,21%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT + 1.85, GD +1.58, TXT +2.23, NOC -.21, BWXT -.85, TDY +7.34, RTX +.06, and ITA $178.80 +3.30 (1.88%).
RETAIL was MIXED with M +.40, JWN +2.07, KSS +1.35, DDS -.50, WMT -1.32, TGT -1.48, TJX -.24, RL +.24, UAA +.20, LULU -6.52, TPR +.72, CPRI +2.23, and XRT $43.32 +.14 (.32%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -24.95, AMZN -16.72, AAPL -2.87, FB -3.91, NFLX -7.37, NVDA -.63, TSLA -16.46, BABA -.61, BIDU -3.15, CMG -2.71, CAT +1.87, BA +11.19, DIS +1.51, and XLK $98.90 -.73 (.73%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.58, JPM +2.20, BAC +1.02, MS +1.77, C +2.47, PNC +3.29, AIG +2.06, TRV +3.53, AXP +1.34, V -3.17, and XLF $25.30 +.54 (2.18%).,
OIL, $37.41 +.12. Oil has managed to trade $37.62 today and has run into the 100-day MA and not even blinked. I will be on watch to get back into the USO puts for a move back to $30-31.00. The stocks were mixed and XLE was $41.74 +.01 (.02%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,1727.40 +22.60. After trading 1761 overnight the gold traded down to 1728 and closed near the lows. The action in the US$ is projecting higher prices for the metals, but it certainly didn’t happen today. Support is just below 1721. We bought back the 3rd and final lot of NEM yesterday @ $58.86.
BITCOIN: closed $9,895 +240. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading as low as 8630 last Tuesday we have been clawing our way back toward 10,000. Last night and this morning we traded over $10500 but fell all the way back to the lows. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $11.70 + .39 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Wednesday, February 12th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the wallstreetbets sub! Welcome to Wednesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Wednesday, February 12th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/ifUy0wj.png)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SHOP
  • TEVA
  • CVS
  • LYFT
  • ROKU
  • BBBY
  • MRNA
  • CYBR

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
CVS Health (CVS) – The drug store operator beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share. Revenue also beat forecasts and CVS gave a full-year EPS outlook of $7.04 to $7.17, compared to a consensus estimate of $7.15 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CVS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer earned $1.02 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 78 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat Wall Street projections, despite what Molson Coors calls “significant headwinds and continued volume declines.”

STOCK SYMBOL: TAP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) – The world’s largest generic drugmaker beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 62 cents per share. Revenue also topped expectations.

STOCK SYMBOL: TEVA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Moody’s (MCO) – The credit-rating agency earned $2.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 7 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also came in above analysts’ forecasts. The company’s full-year outlook for 2020 is also largely above consensus. Moody’s said it is benefiting from increased global bond issuance, as well as increasing demand for research from its Moody’s Analytics unit.

STOCK SYMBOL: MCO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Shopify (SHOP) – The e-commerce platform company earned an adjusted 43 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of 24 cents a share. Revenue also beat forecasts on strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales on Shopify’s platform.

STOCK SYMBOL: SHOP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CyberArk Software (CYBR) – The cybersecurity company beat estimates by 16 cents A share, with quarterly earnings of 97 cents per share. Revenue also came in above consensus. CyberArk said, however, that its full-year adjusted EPS outlook is $2.26-$2.38, below the consensus estimate of $2.79 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CYBR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Lyft (LYFT) – Lyft lost $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, 20 cents a share less than Wall Street had been expecting. The ride-hailing service’s revenue beat consensus estimates. Lyft also said it is still on track to achieve a key measure of profitability by the end of 2021.

STOCK SYMBOL: LYFT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer said same-store sales were down a greater-than-expected 5.4% in December and January, amid increased promotional pricing, lower store traffic, and issues with inventory management.

STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Akamai reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, 10 cents a share above estimates. Akamai’s ’s revenue also beat Street forecasts. Results were driven by strong growth in its cloud security unit, as well as upbeat results for its flagship content delivery platform business.

STOCK SYMBOL: AKAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will be in court today, seeking to overturn one of three record European Union antitrust fines. Google had been fined $2.6 billion for allegedly favoring its own price comparison shopping service over those of smaller European competitors.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
NCR (NCR) – NCR beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 85 cents per share. The payment processing software and services provider’s revenue was also above Street forecasts.

STOCK SYMBOL: NCR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Western Union (WU) – Western Union reported quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share, 5 cents a share below estimates. The payment processing company’s revenue also beat forecasts, and Western Union gave an upbeat outlook for 2020. The company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend as well.

STOCK SYMBOL: WU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Macerich (MAC) – Macerich was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which thinks Simon Property’s (SPG) acquisition of Taubman Centers (TCO) makes an acquisition of the shopping center operator less likely.

STOCK SYMBOL: MAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at wallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Wednesday, February 12th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:

Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?

If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.

Price stability

If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.

Insurance against market crash

While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia

Doom scenario(s)

Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here

Possible Near term Prospects

The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
submitted by bankeronwheels to InvestmentEducation [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Wednesday, February 12th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the stocks sub! Welcome to Wednesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Wednesday, February 12th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/ifUy0wj.png)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SHOP
  • TEVA
  • CVS
  • LYFT
  • ROKU
  • BBBY
  • MRNA
  • CYBR

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
CVS Health (CVS) – The drug store operator beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share. Revenue also beat forecasts and CVS gave a full-year EPS outlook of $7.04 to $7.17, compared to a consensus estimate of $7.15 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CVS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer earned $1.02 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 78 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat Wall Street projections, despite what Molson Coors calls “significant headwinds and continued volume declines.”

STOCK SYMBOL: TAP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) – The world’s largest generic drugmaker beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 62 cents per share. Revenue also topped expectations.

STOCK SYMBOL: TEVA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Moody’s (MCO) – The credit-rating agency earned $2.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 7 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also came in above analysts’ forecasts. The company’s full-year outlook for 2020 is also largely above consensus. Moody’s said it is benefiting from increased global bond issuance, as well as increasing demand for research from its Moody’s Analytics unit.

STOCK SYMBOL: MCO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Shopify (SHOP) – The e-commerce platform company earned an adjusted 43 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of 24 cents a share. Revenue also beat forecasts on strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales on Shopify’s platform.

STOCK SYMBOL: SHOP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CyberArk Software (CYBR) – The cybersecurity company beat estimates by 16 cents A share, with quarterly earnings of 97 cents per share. Revenue also came in above consensus. CyberArk said, however, that its full-year adjusted EPS outlook is $2.26-$2.38, below the consensus estimate of $2.79 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CYBR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Lyft (LYFT) – Lyft lost $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, 20 cents a share less than Wall Street had been expecting. The ride-hailing service’s revenue beat consensus estimates. Lyft also said it is still on track to achieve a key measure of profitability by the end of 2021.

STOCK SYMBOL: LYFT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer said same-store sales were down a greater-than-expected 5.4% in December and January, amid increased promotional pricing, lower store traffic, and issues with inventory management.

STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Akamai reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, 10 cents a share above estimates. Akamai’s ’s revenue also beat Street forecasts. Results were driven by strong growth in its cloud security unit, as well as upbeat results for its flagship content delivery platform business.

STOCK SYMBOL: AKAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will be in court today, seeking to overturn one of three record European Union antitrust fines. Google had been fined $2.6 billion for allegedly favoring its own price comparison shopping service over those of smaller European competitors.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
NCR (NCR) – NCR beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 85 cents per share. The payment processing software and services provider’s revenue was also above Street forecasts.

STOCK SYMBOL: NCR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Western Union (WU) – Western Union reported quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share, 5 cents a share below estimates. The payment processing company’s revenue also beat forecasts, and Western Union gave an upbeat outlook for 2020. The company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend as well.

STOCK SYMBOL: WU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Macerich (MAC) – Macerich was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which thinks Simon Property’s (SPG) acquisition of Taubman Centers (TCO) makes an acquisition of the shopping center operator less likely.

STOCK SYMBOL: MAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at stocks?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Wednesday, February 12th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Why Bitcoin remains a marginal vehicle for store of value (at best) vs. Gold

There is no doubt that times like these necessitate asset diversification.
Some candidates include Bitcoin (“BTC”) and Gold (“XAU”). We have an on-going debate with one of my best friends about Bitcoin.
He is a firm believer in BTC due to (i) the printing of money by central banks, (ii) the lost of faith in governments and (iii) the technological advantage over traditional gold
[Original post with charts: https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
I think of BTC as an electronic version of gold:
Lindy effect – which is most likely to survive?
If you store value, the most important aspect is for the asset class to survive. Made popular by Nicholas Taleb, the Lindy effect states that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
Gold has been around for centuries and will be around in the next decades. As with Bitcoin, the currency may be around or could be replaced by a more efficient one (e.g. from transaction perspective). If you consider some of your savings as a means to secure a future for you and your kids then Gold is much more likely to fulfill this objective – although one needs to be reminded that this both asset classes don’t generate any income and as such can be used as diversifiers and potentially partially rotated into more risky assets when the market turns.
Price stability
If we assume that currently the main use for both is the store of value (BTC is only marginally used as transactional currency) then price stability is key. Gold prices are more stable and largely correlated to (i) real rates (ii) strength of USD and (iii) macro outlook. Arguably, Gold is less prone to price manipulation as one of the most traded assets (daily volumes can be as high as the total market cap of BTC).
It goes without saying that BTC can provide you with better returns as it’s more speculative in nature. The purpose of this blog however is to analyse assets from a savings allocation perspective and thus taking into consideration the risk you’re taking.
Insurance against market crash
While both BTC and XAU increased in value along with other risk assets prior to the crisis, the subsequent drop was much more significant for BTC while XAU only experienced marginal losses due to forced liquidations from investors highlighting the speculative nature of BTC.
As such Gold provides a good insurance policy as long as the crash in not excessively severe in nature – in 2008 Gold has initially dropped in value due to liquidations before rallying.
Another potential diversifiers that act as insurance for equity portfolios are government bonds. Treasuries have also experienced some volatility due to liquidations but are different to BTC and XAU as the FED controls the short term maturity asset yields and now even considering controlling the longer end of the curvesimilar to other countries like Japan or Australia
Doom scenario(s)
Both assets have major issues since Gold can’t be easily transported/accessed in case of a major natural disaster and BTC will miserably fail when electricity is down (earthquake, tsunami etc). Electronic Gold suffers from the same shortcoming hence physical gold has an edge here
Possible Near term Prospects
The technology behind BTC is very powerful. I’d also agree that conceptually is the best form of money that has ever been invented. Regarding BTC, in the end my friend and I will probably meet somewhere in the middle . A marginal part of the receivers of US fiscal measures may invest the cash in BTC. I have seen a large group of anti-establishment people on the West Coast while cycling from Vancouver to San Francisco last summer and there is a likelihood that these people will drive the BTC price up in the near term. However, due mainly to the price stability issue and perceived complexity I am yet to see a significant part of population that would allocate a sizeable part of their savings in BTC. And this brings me to my last point – skin in the game. So far, my friend only allocated a small amount of his net worth to BTC…
[As originally posted with charts on https://bankeronwheels.com/bitcoin-a-marginal-vehicle-for-store-of-value/ ]
submitted by bankeronwheels to Commodities [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Wednesday, February 12th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the StockMarket sub! Welcome to Wednesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

(CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL SOURCE!)

Today's Top Headlines for Wednesday, February 12th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/ifUy0wj.png)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SHOP
  • TEVA
  • CVS
  • LYFT
  • ROKU
  • BBBY
  • MRNA
  • CYBR

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
CVS Health (CVS) – The drug store operator beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share. Revenue also beat forecasts and CVS gave a full-year EPS outlook of $7.04 to $7.17, compared to a consensus estimate of $7.15 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CVS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer earned $1.02 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 78 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat Wall Street projections, despite what Molson Coors calls “significant headwinds and continued volume declines.”

STOCK SYMBOL: TAP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) – The world’s largest generic drugmaker beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 62 cents per share. Revenue also topped expectations.

STOCK SYMBOL: TEVA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Moody’s (MCO) – The credit-rating agency earned $2.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 7 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also came in above analysts’ forecasts. The company’s full-year outlook for 2020 is also largely above consensus. Moody’s said it is benefiting from increased global bond issuance, as well as increasing demand for research from its Moody’s Analytics unit.

STOCK SYMBOL: MCO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Shopify (SHOP) – The e-commerce platform company earned an adjusted 43 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of 24 cents a share. Revenue also beat forecasts on strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales on Shopify’s platform.

STOCK SYMBOL: SHOP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CyberArk Software (CYBR) – The cybersecurity company beat estimates by 16 cents A share, with quarterly earnings of 97 cents per share. Revenue also came in above consensus. CyberArk said, however, that its full-year adjusted EPS outlook is $2.26-$2.38, below the consensus estimate of $2.79 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CYBR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Lyft (LYFT) – Lyft lost $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, 20 cents a share less than Wall Street had been expecting. The ride-hailing service’s revenue beat consensus estimates. Lyft also said it is still on track to achieve a key measure of profitability by the end of 2021.

STOCK SYMBOL: LYFT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer said same-store sales were down a greater-than-expected 5.4% in December and January, amid increased promotional pricing, lower store traffic, and issues with inventory management.

STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Akamai reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, 10 cents a share above estimates. Akamai’s ’s revenue also beat Street forecasts. Results were driven by strong growth in its cloud security unit, as well as upbeat results for its flagship content delivery platform business.

STOCK SYMBOL: AKAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will be in court today, seeking to overturn one of three record European Union antitrust fines. Google had been fined $2.6 billion for allegedly favoring its own price comparison shopping service over those of smaller European competitors.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
NCR (NCR) – NCR beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 85 cents per share. The payment processing software and services provider’s revenue was also above Street forecasts.

STOCK SYMBOL: NCR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Western Union (WU) – Western Union reported quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share, 5 cents a share below estimates. The payment processing company’s revenue also beat forecasts, and Western Union gave an upbeat outlook for 2020. The company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend as well.

STOCK SYMBOL: WU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Macerich (MAC) – Macerich was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which thinks Simon Property’s (SPG) acquisition of Taubman Centers (TCO) makes an acquisition of the shopping center operator less likely.

STOCK SYMBOL: MAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

FULL DISCLOSURE:

bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Wednesday, February 12th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Today's Pre-Market News [Wednesday, February 12th, 2020]

Good morning traders and investors of the smallstreetbets sub! Welcome to Wednesday. Here is your pre-market news this AM-

Today's Top Headlines for Wednesday, February 12th, 2020

STOCK FUTURES CURRENTLY:

(CLICK HERE FOR STOCK FUTURES CHARTS!)

YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S MARKET MAP!)

TODAY'S MARKET MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET MAP!)

YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S S&P SECTORS CHART!)

TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR!)

THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S UPCOMING IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES LINK #2!)

YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES LINK #3!)

YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

(CLICK HERE FOR YESTERDAY'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS!)

TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #1!](https://i.imgur.com/ifUy0wj.png)
(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR LINK #2!)

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING TICKERS:

  • SHOP
  • TEVA
  • CVS
  • LYFT
  • ROKU
  • BBBY
  • MRNA
  • CYBR

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
CVS Health (CVS) – The drug store operator beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share. Revenue also beat forecasts and CVS gave a full-year EPS outlook of $7.04 to $7.17, compared to a consensus estimate of $7.15 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CVS

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer earned $1.02 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 78 cents a share consensus estimate. Revenue also beat Wall Street projections, despite what Molson Coors calls “significant headwinds and continued volume declines.”

STOCK SYMBOL: TAP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) – The world’s largest generic drugmaker beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 62 cents per share. Revenue also topped expectations.

STOCK SYMBOL: TEVA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Moody’s (MCO) – The credit-rating agency earned $2.00 per share for the fourth quarter, 7 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also came in above analysts’ forecasts. The company’s full-year outlook for 2020 is also largely above consensus. Moody’s said it is benefiting from increased global bond issuance, as well as increasing demand for research from its Moody’s Analytics unit.

STOCK SYMBOL: MCO

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Shopify (SHOP) – The e-commerce platform company earned an adjusted 43 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared to a consensus estimate of 24 cents a share. Revenue also beat forecasts on strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales on Shopify’s platform.

STOCK SYMBOL: SHOP

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
CyberArk Software (CYBR) – The cybersecurity company beat estimates by 16 cents A share, with quarterly earnings of 97 cents per share. Revenue also came in above consensus. CyberArk said, however, that its full-year adjusted EPS outlook is $2.26-$2.38, below the consensus estimate of $2.79 a share.

STOCK SYMBOL: CYBR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Lyft (LYFT) – Lyft lost $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, 20 cents a share less than Wall Street had been expecting. The ride-hailing service’s revenue beat consensus estimates. Lyft also said it is still on track to achieve a key measure of profitability by the end of 2021.

STOCK SYMBOL: LYFT

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – The housewares retailer said same-store sales were down a greater-than-expected 5.4% in December and January, amid increased promotional pricing, lower store traffic, and issues with inventory management.

STOCK SYMBOL: BBBY

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) – Akamai reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.23 per share, 10 cents a share above estimates. Akamai’s ’s revenue also beat Street forecasts. Results were driven by strong growth in its cloud security unit, as well as upbeat results for its flagship content delivery platform business.

STOCK SYMBOL: AKAM

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Alphabet’s Google unit will be in court today, seeking to overturn one of three record European Union antitrust fines. Google had been fined $2.6 billion for allegedly favoring its own price comparison shopping service over those of smaller European competitors.

STOCK SYMBOL: GOOGL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
NCR (NCR) – NCR beat estimates by a penny a share, with quarterly profit of 85 cents per share. The payment processing software and services provider’s revenue was also above Street forecasts.

STOCK SYMBOL: NCR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Western Union (WU) – Western Union reported quarterly earnings of 38 cents per share, 5 cents a share below estimates. The payment processing company’s revenue also beat forecasts, and Western Union gave an upbeat outlook for 2020. The company announced a 13% increase in its quarterly dividend as well.

STOCK SYMBOL: WU

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Macerich (MAC) – Macerich was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” at Piper Sandler, which thinks Simon Property’s (SPG) acquisition of Taubman Centers (TCO) makes an acquisition of the shopping center operator less likely.

STOCK SYMBOL: MAC

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)

DISCUSS!

What's on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at smallstreetbets?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Wednesday, February 12th, 2020! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The truth about Bitfinex and Tether...

EDIT: I realize this is long, but I feel it's important to have this info out there. Maybe save it for later when you see this narrative being pushed around so you can come back and get the other side.
EDIT 2: TL:DR - Most negative analysis on this sub lately of Tether are likely from a single biased source that stretches a lot to make his points, and there is simply not enough Tether in the market nor is it concentrated enough to create a catastrophic problem or significant inflation for any USDT currency pair.
Like many of you, I have heard the stories and posts about the fraudulent tether, I trade in this space on many exchanges and the growing concern is worrying, so I did my due diligence, and I would like to share it with the community.
First and most importantly IMO, all this controversy stems from just one account/person. A person on twitter going by the handle @Bitfinexed - https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed
Here you can see this person's writings - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/latest
Spoofy, Tethers and institutional investors are what they contend to be the lies and fraud, AND that this entire rally in 2017 is based on fraudulent Tethers and spoofing, and that this will implode the markets.
I feel this is also important… Turns out this person sold at $1000, maybe the real reason he is on this mission??… https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/896460700461277185
Now for some troubling info, the majority of this narrative (FUD??) here on Reddit in the last month come from just three accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/useAtlasRand1/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/usecetusfund/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/useAnythingForSuccess
As you can see these accounts entire mission is to post constantly about this. They all show up on the other’s post to comment regularly.
Btw, some people on the pro-finex side think this is a smear campaign from other exchanges. I don’t believe this to be the case. This person(s) only talk about TetheFinex, yet Tether is used and traded by the $millions daily on 3 of the top 5 exchanges, Finex, Bittrex, Polo, yet never a word about those other exchanges. (Check the USDT volume on other exchanges) https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tethe#markets
Therefore, if it is an exchange, it isn’t Trex/Polo because this would affect them as well. If it was an exchange other than Trex/Polo they would have plenty of fire power against 3 of the top 5 exchanges with Tether fraud.
This leads me to believe it is most likely a sad person(s) with an ax to grind. They might have lost their $ on Finex to what they believe are spoofers/fraud and or they were part of the finex hack and sold there BFX too early.
Btw I see contention that Bitfinex did NOT pay back the $ from the hack. They did, but some people are mad because they sold BFX early and didn’t recoup full $ amount from haircuts, but that was their decision.
~ POINTS OF CONTENTION
SPOOFING This is what set my alarm bells off about these articles I read from Bitfinexed. Specifically spoofing… https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
and this nugget…“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” from this article… https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330
Claiming spoofing shows this person has limited markets/trading knowledge. Clearly they haven’t watched an order book of any exchange in crypto, equities, or Forex.
This is called scalping or scare walls. Again this is done in every market around the globe.
Here is a professional FOREX trader talking about scalping, how it works, who/why they do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M&list=WL&index=94
TL;DW - they do this to get the price where they want it because they know people are watching the order book (the video is quite enlightening), and the key point that keeps this from being an illegal activity (on regulated exchanges) is THAT THEY DO MAKE TRADES FOR THOSE SIZES eventually. This doesn’t always work and they get stuck in these positions. Risk/reward.
The ironic part about this spoofing idea is Finex is one of the few, if not only exchanges, that offer hidden orders. So people trying to scalp always have to worry if there is a monster hidden order lurking.
Go to the UPDATE: AUGUST 7TH of this story and watch the video he claims proves spoofing and Phil Potter admitting it in the voice over. https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
I see nothing wrong with what Phil says and no proof of anything in the video. Again this is true on every exchange trading anything of volume in the world. People with large amounts of money move markets, oh the horror. I “technically” do this when I place an order and pull it for whatever reason (scared, mistake, etc.) just not in large sums, but I would if I had large sums.
“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” The crash they are referring to is from the early June ATH to the mid-July correction. A 45-day crash? Well, I am one of those people that went margin long. And many many others who read charts, resistance, support, retracement info. Again, this smacks of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about.
REASON FOR PRICE RISE/BTC GOES UP WHEN TETHERS ARE CREATED
This is absurd. This completely negates everything else, the Japanese currency ruling and them entering the market, Koreans coming into the market in a huge way (they now have the largest exchange by far with close to a Billion traded DAILY, oh and they don’t use Tether at all), the successful hard fork, or the more (positive!) interest from the media and people than ever before in BTC history.
Instead, we are supposed to think that $395 million dollars of tethers are the reason for this rise in a $160+ Billion market cap. 
C’mon people! Look at that volume for the last 30 days. https://imgur.com/a/vKJ5g Also, the overwhelming majority of trade does not exist in Tether but KRW, CNY, USD, JPY.
Tethers are usually created when extra liquidity is needed, be it a crash or a spike. Because more people are trading.
They try to prove Tether boosts the market with this picture in their article. https://imgur.com/a/274SE
The problem is 2 of the last 3 tether dumps coincide with a downturn. In fact, there is nothing in this graph that proves this theory. Also, the last tether dump/price rise coincides perfectly with the news of the majority of miners signaling segwit2x for the first time (search bitcoin or btc around that date).
So do you think the market traded billions of $ at that time because of a $50 million Tether dump or because for the first time in YEARS a solution and path forward became visible??
THEY DON’T HAVE BANKING//NO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS/FAKE TETHERS-TERMS OF SERVICE
In regards to banking, clearly they have some kind of banking and a way for large amounts of fiat to get in and out. The banking is not for you and me but for regional bitcoin exchanges and other large customers.
You know how I know this? If they didn’t the internet would be flooded with Finex withdrawal issues, there would be a price premium on Bitfinex compared to other exchanges, just like Mt. Gox had for so long and also Bitfinex earlier in the year when the banking issues started.
This article explains it very clearly (seriously read this article), it has nothing to do with this controversy, just the banking issue in April.
https://medium.com/@Austerity_Sucks/why-bitfinex-went-from-a-premium-in-its-crypto-usd-pairs-to-now-a-significant-discount-e7be193d7cb0
TL;DR - All of the imbalances discussed (Finex premium) have been a result of USD frictions into Bitfinex. It has been a chain reaction resulting from the initial freeze to the various gradual withdrawal options. As soon as Bitfinex conclusively addresses the USD flow issues, the crypto pair prices will normalize (which they did) with other exchanges that don’t have banking frictions and USDT price will return to par (which it did).
The premiums on Finex and Tether are what would prove something is wrong, yet they are not here. Surprisingly Finex has been at a discount to GDAX and GEMINI recently. Meaning people are willing to take a loss on prices to be able to lend on Finex. This too will normalize as people/bots arb.
Aug 9th… From “arguably” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/895339675120013313
Aug 22nd…. To “admitting” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/900230917196836864
Listen to that audio in the second link, listen carefully. His explanation is perfectly reasonable. Banks don’t work well, consistently, or at all with crypto related companies (marijuana companies too for that matter) especially in jurisdictions that are outside US/Europe. Surprise surprise, this is nothing new. When they find out customers, deposits/wire are cryptos related they pull the plug (a reason why Trex/Polo don’t mess with USD).
Also, they gave their customers a haircut, probably a lot of complaints about the hack to Wells Fargo and other banks. These are the correspondent's banks, not Finex’s, they have banking. This is how they can receive large institutional deposits and withdrawals. Which I bet make up the majority of the fiat deposits and withdrawals.
Classic 80/20 business rule, 20% of your clients are providing 80% of the liquidity plus you are having banking issues (which is expected in crypto-land), so you cut this service to the 80% saving time/resources/headaches for the 20% loss in a single service to them (no fiat withdrawal/deposits- but crypto flows in and out with ease).
Again if they weren’t able to get money in and out there would be a premium, there would be a long line of complaints online. I have no reason (or proof) to believe that money is NOT coming into/out of the exchange.
It makes total sense too, they are the best lending platform, have one of the most liquid exchanges, and have by far the most reliable and best software/servers/UI/order options. You cannot deny this fact, they are constantly a top 3 exchange in volume, even after a hack.
I use Finex (as well as others) because of all those things. Also, they have already been hacked, a second hack seems less likely (IMO, they have more to lose with another hack). They have many big events on the horizon (Ethfinex). Would a company be putting resources into these things if this is all fraud or an exit scam? I find that unlikely. Is this 100% full proof? Of course not, nothing is, especially in crypto, just my reasons for trading there.
Institutional Investors - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-legitimate-institutional-investors-really-coming-onto-bitfinex-s-platform-i-don-t-think-so-cb4ed5175092 Here is what this person doesn’t comprehend, what if these institutional investors are… you ready… here it comes… other exchanges that use Tether, as well as other crypto related businesses. It is only $395 million Tethers. These exchanges (Trex, Finex, Polo) are printing money.
This isn’t “someone” with 100’s of millions of dollars as the article suggests, it’s many people with millions/thousands of dollars. Again this all ignores the fact that many more people have entered the ecosystem this year. This is proven by Coinbase growth, transaction growth, and exchange growth (both in volume and # of exchanges), and growth in crypto-related sub-Reddits.
Yet Bitfinexed is shocked that lending hits ATH’s, but it is perfectly explainable and reasonable based on the evidence and data of gthe ecosystem. Let us not forget BTC is a finite amount, more people are going to increase demand/price, if you think this is a bubble... you haven’t seen anything yet.
The TOS are sketchy and a point of concern but there are two things to keep in mind- It was necessary to word it that way, and the market clearly doesn’t care.
If they had worded it that they will redeem no matter what, they would have money launderers flocking to the service (bogging down resources), plus law enforcement knocking.
Tethers weren’t created to get $ in/out of crypto but to provide a safe haven and liquidity on exchanges that don’t use USD. And I would say they are working perfectly. Very few are withdrawing USDT for USD.
I think it is precisely because of what the co-founder of tether refers to here (and below)… “If you want to convert USD₮ into fiat currency (or vice-versa) at tether.to, you must go through the whole “aggressive” KYC/AML process and get verified. I’ve heard from many who tried and were unable to provide sufficient documentation. Tether’s KYC/AML policies were written by experienced compliance officers and it’s critical that it be done properly and with diligence. It really is about “knowing your customer” and making sure that their uses are legitimate.” This is a perfectly reasonable explanation why people are not lining up to cash out of Tether, and also why large/reputable institutions can (exchanges, investors, etc.).
TETHERS REPLY TO ALL THIS, PLUS UPCOMING AUDIT https://tether.to/tether-update/
Now ask yourself this, would a company that is operating fraudulently have a roadmap of all these new features that no one will ever use if they don’t provide these promised audits as they say they will by the end of the year?
So as of now they have enough runway until the end of the year. I say we give TetheFinex the benefit of the doubt.
While Tether could be operating fractionally (so to could any exchange in crypto btw), there is no proof or evidence of it today. It trades at normalized rates. You can’t just create 100’s of million of dollars without the marketing realizing somewhere.
Sure, you can say this is a confidence game, but so is crypto, so is the USD, so is the concept of money. I see no reason to be more concerned with this risk than the already risky environment we trade in with exchanges.
WHAT IF I”M WRONG? CRYPTO WILL IMPLODE!
No it won’t. Sure there will be a dip maybe even a correction, but there are only 395 million Tethers. People will get out of Tether even at massive discounts (until $0) into crypto because they can’t get USD, but not more than the 395 million tethers circulating (at this time).
At a certain discount people will understand what is going on and stop trading for Tether. BTC + ETH is worth over $100 billion, how many time does the entire amount of USDT have to turn over to cause a massive crash?
What will get hit the hardest are the people left holding tether (if/when they implode) and Trex/Polo/Finex.
To think Polo/Trex would rely so much on USDT that they didn’t fully vet it is absurd as well. Whats more likely, Polo/Trex’s due diligence or this @Bitfinexed person based on conjecture?
I’ve already seen a Forbes contributor try and get ahold of Bitfinexed on twitter. https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/894437272241569792
Could I be wrong about all of this??? Of course, but, I feel I have provided more evidence than the other side. You are the Judge :)
USEFUL INFO
Some from u/udecker - Tether co-founder
Tether.to is who has the backing for the token, not Bitfinex. Bitfinex is a customer of Tether. If Bitfinex wants more Tether, they make a request to Tether, just like all other Tether customers. Tether waits for USD to show up, and when it does, creates the necessary tethers and credits Bitfinex. They both have Tawainese banking so money can flow back and forth easily. (The banking industry in the country of Taiwan are under scrutiny lately because of larger legal issues not involving crypto, but clearly affecting crypto companies)
https://wallet.tether.to/transparency
Tether wasn’t designed to be a profit machine. It was designed to be a utility for the crypto community to provide a stable token (with all the benefits of this). Tether’s business model is this: 1. Generate fees from wire deposits and withdrawals and conversions. 2. Interest income on the reserve.
Bitfinex’s parent company owns a 20% stake in Tether.
People say Tether isn’t being burned. But they are being recycled which is/was always an option.
I hope we can have a productive conversation around this without the usual Gox 2.0, sell it all, Bitfinex is the anti-christ comments with no substance. Give us your opinion and perspective because maybe I am missing something… but, maybe you are too.
This was quite time consuming (just ask my kids and boss, lol) So if you found this info helpful you can donate if you’d like here, if not, no biggie smalls :)
ETH - 0x0181D1C82229BAD741BB6c302ae523aE6DC9a1EE
BTC - 14Wz4SCuKwa81UBh1U7mcaCTxMsYLLuGZK
BCH- 16uby9gW79tjn5guQG8v5mTsdu6V6cYyKF
submitted by bhdgsetyf to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The truth about Bitfinex and Tether...

EDIT: I realize this is long, but I feel it's important to have this info out there. Maybe save it for later when you see this narrative being pushed around so you can come back and get the other side.
EDIT 2: TL:DR - Most negative analysis on this sub lately of Tether are likely from a single biased source that stretches a lot to make his points, and there is simply not enough Tether in the market nor is it concentrated enough to create a catastrophic problem or significant inflation for any USDT currency pair.
Like many of you, I have heard the stories and posts about the fraudulent tether, I trade in this space on many exchanges and the growing concern is worrying, so I did my due diligence, and I would like to share it with the community.
First and most importantly IMO, all this controversy stems from just one account/person. A person on twitter going by the handle @Bitfinexed - https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed
Here you can see this person's writings - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/latest
Spoofy, Tethers and institutional investors are what they contend to be the lies and fraud, AND that this entire rally in 2017 is based on fraudulent Tethers and spoofing, and that this will implode the markets.
I feel this is also important… Turns out this person sold at $1000, maybe the real reason he is on this mission??… https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/896460700461277185
Now for some troubling info, the majority of this narrative (FUD??) here on Reddit in the last month come from just three accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/useAtlasRand1/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/usecetusfund/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/useAnythingForSuccess
As you can see these accounts entire mission is to post constantly about this. They all show up on the other’s post to comment regularly.
Btw, some people on the pro-finex side think this is a smear campaign from other exchanges. I don’t believe this to be the case. This person(s) only talk about TetheFinex, yet Tether is used and traded by the $millions daily on 3 of the top 5 exchanges, Finex, Bittrex, Polo, yet never a word about those other exchanges. (Check the USDT volume on other exchanges) https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tethe#markets
Therefore, if it is an exchange, it isn’t Trex/Polo because this would affect them as well. If it was an exchange other than Trex/Polo they would have plenty of fire power against 3 of the top 5 exchanges with Tether fraud.
This leads me to believe it is most likely a sad person(s) with an ax to grind. They might have lost their $ on Finex to what they believe are spoofers/fraud and or they were part of the finex hack and sold there BFX too early.
Btw I see contention that Bitfinex did NOT pay back the $ from the hack. They did, but some people are mad because they sold BFX early and didn’t recoup full $ amount from haircuts, but that was their decision.
~ POINTS OF CONTENTION
SPOOFING This is what set my alarm bells off about these articles I read from Bitfinexed. Specifically spoofing… https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
and this nugget…“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” from this article… https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330
Claiming spoofing shows this person has limited markets/trading knowledge. Clearly they haven’t watched an order book of any exchange in crypto, equities, or Forex.
This is called scalping or scare walls. Again this is done in every market around the globe.
Here is a professional FOREX trader talking about scalping, how it works, who/why they do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M&list=WL&index=94
TL;DW - they do this to get the price where they want it because they know people are watching the order book (the video is quite enlightening), and the key point that keeps this from being an illegal activity (on regulated exchanges) is THAT THEY DO MAKE TRADES FOR THOSE SIZES eventually. This doesn’t always work and they get stuck in these positions. Risk/reward.
The ironic part about this spoofing idea is Finex is one of the few, if not only exchanges, that offer hidden orders. So people trying to scalp always have to worry if there is a monster hidden order lurking.
Go to the UPDATE: AUGUST 7TH of this story and watch the video he claims proves spoofing and Phil Potter admitting it in the voice over. https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
I see nothing wrong with what Phil says and no proof of anything in the video. Again this is true on every exchange trading anything of volume in the world. People with large amounts of money move markets, oh the horror. I “technically” do this when I place an order and pull it for whatever reason (scared, mistake, etc.) just not in large sums, but I would if I had large sums.
“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” The crash they are referring to is from the early June ATH to the mid-July correction. A 45-day crash? Well, I am one of those people that went margin long. And many many others who read charts, resistance, support, retracement info. Again, this smacks of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about.
REASON FOR PRICE RISE/BTC GOES UP WHEN TETHERS ARE CREATED
This is absurd. This completely negates everything else, the Japanese currency ruling and them entering the market, Koreans coming into the market in a huge way (they now have the largest exchange by far with close to a Billion traded DAILY, oh and they don’t use Tether at all), the successful hard fork, or the more (positive!) interest from the media and people than ever before in BTC history.
Instead, we are supposed to think that $395 million dollars of tethers are the reason for this rise in a $160+ Billion market cap. 
C’mon people! Look at that volume for the last 30 days. https://imgur.com/a/vKJ5g Also, the overwhelming majority of trade does not exist in Tether but KRW, CNY, USD, JPY.
Tethers are usually created when extra liquidity is needed, be it a crash or a spike. Because more people are trading.
They try to prove Tether boosts the market with this picture in their article. https://imgur.com/a/274SE
The problem is 2 of the last 3 tether dumps coincide with a downturn. In fact, there is nothing in this graph that proves this theory. Also, the last tether dump/price rise coincides perfectly with the news of the majority of miners signaling segwit2x for the first time (search bitcoin or btc around that date).
So do you think the market traded billions of $ at that time because of a $50 million Tether dump or because for the first time in YEARS a solution and path forward became visible??
THEY DON’T HAVE BANKING//NO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS/FAKE TETHERS-TERMS OF SERVICE
In regards to banking, clearly they have some kind of banking and a way for large amounts of fiat to get in and out. The banking is not for you and me but for regional bitcoin exchanges and other large customers.
You know how I know this? If they didn’t the internet would be flooded with Finex withdrawal issues, there would be a price premium on Bitfinex compared to other exchanges, just like Mt. Gox had for so long and also Bitfinex earlier in the year when the banking issues started.
This article explains it very clearly (seriously read this article), it has nothing to do with this controversy, just the banking issue in April.
https://medium.com/@Austerity_Sucks/why-bitfinex-went-from-a-premium-in-its-crypto-usd-pairs-to-now-a-significant-discount-e7be193d7cb0
TL;DR - All of the imbalances discussed (Finex premium) have been a result of USD frictions into Bitfinex. It has been a chain reaction resulting from the initial freeze to the various gradual withdrawal options. As soon as Bitfinex conclusively addresses the USD flow issues, the crypto pair prices will normalize (which they did) with other exchanges that don’t have banking frictions and USDT price will return to par (which it did).
The premiums on Finex and Tether are what would prove something is wrong, yet they are not here. Surprisingly Finex has been at a discount to GDAX and GEMINI recently. Meaning people are willing to take a loss on prices to be able to lend on Finex. This too will normalize as people/bots arb.
Aug 9th… From “arguably” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/895339675120013313
Aug 22nd…. To “admitting” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/900230917196836864
Listen to that audio in the second link, listen carefully. His explanation is perfectly reasonable. Banks don’t work well, consistently, or at all with crypto related companies (marijuana companies too for that matter) especially in jurisdictions that are outside US/Europe. Surprise surprise, this is nothing new. When they find out customers, deposits/wire are cryptos related they pull the plug (a reason why Trex/Polo don’t mess with USD).
Also, they gave their customers a haircut, probably a lot of complaints about the hack to Wells Fargo and other banks. These are the correspondent's banks, not Finex’s, they have banking. This is how they can receive large institutional deposits and withdrawals. Which I bet make up the majority of the fiat deposits and withdrawals.
Classic 80/20 business rule, 20% of your clients are providing 80% of the liquidity plus you are having banking issues (which is expected in crypto-land), so you cut this service to the 80% saving time/resources/headaches for the 20% loss in a single service to them (no fiat withdrawal/deposits- but crypto flows in and out with ease).
Again if they weren’t able to get money in and out there would be a premium, there would be a long line of complaints online. I have no reason (or proof) to believe that money is NOT coming into/out of the exchange.
It makes total sense too, they are the best lending platform, have one of the most liquid exchanges, and have by far the most reliable and best software/servers/UI/order options. You cannot deny this fact, they are constantly a top 3 exchange in volume, even after a hack.
I use Finex (as well as others) because of all those things. Also, they have already been hacked, a second hack seems less likely (IMO, they have more to lose with another hack). They have many big events on the horizon (Ethfinex). Would a company be putting resources into these things if this is all fraud or an exit scam? I find that unlikely. Is this 100% full proof? Of course not, nothing is, especially in crypto, just my reasons for trading there.
Institutional Investors - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-legitimate-institutional-investors-really-coming-onto-bitfinex-s-platform-i-don-t-think-so-cb4ed5175092 Here is what this person doesn’t comprehend, what if these institutional investors are… you ready… here it comes… other exchanges that use Tether, as well as other crypto related businesses. It is only $395 million Tethers. These exchanges (Trex, Finex, Polo) are printing money.
This isn’t “someone” with 100’s of millions of dollars as the article suggests, it’s many people with millions/thousands of dollars. Again this all ignores the fact that many more people have entered the ecosystem this year. This is proven by Coinbase growth, transaction growth, and exchange growth (both in volume and # of exchanges), and growth in crypto-related sub-Reddits.
Yet Bitfinexed is shocked that lending hits ATH’s, but it is perfectly explainable and reasonable based on the evidence and data of gthe ecosystem. Let us not forget BTC is a finite amount, more people are going to increase demand/price, if you think this is a bubble... you haven’t seen anything yet.
The TOS are sketchy and a point of concern but there are two things to keep in mind- It was necessary to word it that way, and the market clearly doesn’t care.
If they had worded it that they will redeem no matter what, they would have money launderers flocking to the service (bogging down resources), plus law enforcement knocking.
Tethers weren’t created to get $ in/out of crypto but to provide a safe haven and liquidity on exchanges that don’t use USD. And I would say they are working perfectly. Very few are withdrawing USDT for USD.
I think it is precisely because of what the co-founder of tether refers to here (and below)… “If you want to convert USD₮ into fiat currency (or vice-versa) at tether.to, you must go through the whole “aggressive” KYC/AML process and get verified. I’ve heard from many who tried and were unable to provide sufficient documentation. Tether’s KYC/AML policies were written by experienced compliance officers and it’s critical that it be done properly and with diligence. It really is about “knowing your customer” and making sure that their uses are legitimate.” This is a perfectly reasonable explanation why people are not lining up to cash out of Tether, and also why large/reputable institutions can (exchanges, investors, etc.).
TETHERS REPLY TO ALL THIS, PLUS UPCOMING AUDIT https://tether.to/tether-update/
Now ask yourself this, would a company that is operating fraudulently have a roadmap of all these new features that no one will ever use if they don’t provide these promised audits as they say they will by the end of the year?
So as of now they have enough runway until the end of the year. I say we give TetheFinex the benefit of the doubt.
While Tether could be operating fractionally (so to could any exchange in crypto btw), there is no proof or evidence of it today. It trades at normalized rates. You can’t just create 100’s of million of dollars without the marketing realizing somewhere.
Sure, you can say this is a confidence game, but so is crypto, so is the USD, so is the concept of money. I see no reason to be more concerned with this risk than the already risky environment we trade in with exchanges.
WHAT IF I”M WRONG? CRYPTO WILL IMPLODE!
No it won’t. Sure there will be a dip maybe even a correction, but there are only 395 million Tethers. People will get out of Tether even at massive discounts (until $0) into crypto because they can’t get USD, but not more than the 395 million tethers circulating (at this time).
At a certain discount people will understand what is going on and stop trading for Tether. BTC + ETH is worth over $100 billion, how many time does the entire amount of USDT have to turn over to cause a massive crash?
What will get hit the hardest are the people left holding tether (if/when they implode) and Trex/Polo/Finex.
To think Polo/Trex would rely so much on USDT that they didn’t fully vet it is absurd as well. Whats more likely, Polo/Trex’s due diligence or this @Bitfinexed person based on conjecture?
I’ve already seen a Forbes contributor try and get ahold of Bitfinexed on twitter. https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/894437272241569792
Could I be wrong about all of this??? Of course, but, I feel I have provided more evidence than the other side. You are the Judge :)
USEFUL INFO
Some from u/udecker - Tether co-founder
Tether.to is who has the backing for the token, not Bitfinex. Bitfinex is a customer of Tether. If Bitfinex wants more Tether, they make a request to Tether, just like all other Tether customers. Tether waits for USD to show up, and when it does, creates the necessary tethers and credits Bitfinex. They both have Tawainese banking so money can flow back and forth easily. (The banking industry in the country of Taiwan are under scrutiny lately because of larger legal issues not involving crypto, but clearly affecting crypto companies)
https://wallet.tether.to/transparency
Tether wasn’t designed to be a profit machine. It was designed to be a utility for the crypto community to provide a stable token (with all the benefits of this). Tether’s business model is this: 1. Generate fees from wire deposits and withdrawals and conversions. 2. Interest income on the reserve.
Bitfinex’s parent company owns a 20% stake in Tether.
People say Tether isn’t being burned. But they are being recycled which is/was always an option.
I hope we can have a productive conversation around this without the usual Gox 2.0, sell it all, Bitfinex is the anti-christ comments with no substance. Give us your opinion and perspective because maybe I am missing something… but, maybe you are too.
This was quite time consuming (just ask my kids and boss, lol) So if you found this info helpful you can donate if you’d like here, if not, no biggie smalls :)
BCH- 16uby9gW79tjn5guQG8v5mTsdu6V6cYyKF
submitted by bhdgsetyf to btc [link] [comments]

The truth about Bitfinex and Tether...

EDIT: I realize this is long, but I feel it's important to have this info out there. Maybe save it for later when you see this narrative being pushed around so you can come back and get the other side.
EDIT 2: TL:DR - Most negative analysis on this sub lately of Tether are likely from a single biased source that stretches a lot to make his points, and there is simply not enough Tether in the market nor is it concentrated enough to create a catastrophic problem or significant inflation for any USDT currency pair.
Like many of you, I have heard the stories and posts about the fraudulent tether, I trade in this space on many exchanges and the growing concern is worrying, so I did my due diligence, and I would like to share it with the community.
First and most importantly IMO, all this controversy stems from just one account/person. A person on twitter going by the handle @Bitfinexed - https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed
Here you can see this person's writings - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/latest
Spoofy, Tethers and institutional investors are what they contend to be the lies and fraud, AND that this entire rally in 2017 is based on fraudulent Tethers and spoofing, and that this will implode the markets.
I feel this is also important… Turns out this person sold at $1000, maybe the real reason he is on this mission??… https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/896460700461277185
Now for some troubling info, the majority of this narrative (FUD??) here on Reddit in the last month come from just three accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/useAtlasRand1/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/usecetusfund/submitted/
https://www.reddit.com/useAnythingForSuccess
As you can see these accounts entire mission is to post constantly about this. They all show up on the other’s post to comment regularly.
Btw, some people on the pro-finex side think this is a smear campaign from other exchanges. I don’t believe this to be the case. This person(s) only talk about TetheFinex, yet Tether is used and traded by the $millions daily on 3 of the top 5 exchanges, Finex, Bittrex, Polo, yet never a word about those other exchanges. (Check the USDT volume on other exchanges) https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tethe#markets
Therefore, if it is an exchange, it isn’t Trex/Polo because this would affect them as well. If it was an exchange other than Trex/Polo they would have plenty of fire power against 3 of the top 5 exchanges with Tether fraud.
This leads me to believe it is most likely a sad person(s) with an ax to grind. They might have lost their $ on Finex to what they believe are spoofers/fraud and or they were part of the finex hack and sold there BFX too early.
Btw I see contention that Bitfinex did NOT pay back the $ from the hack. They did, but some people are mad because they sold BFX early and didn’t recoup full $ amount from haircuts, but that was their decision.
~ POINTS OF CONTENTION
SPOOFING This is what set my alarm bells off about these articles I read from Bitfinexed. Specifically spoofing… https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
and this nugget…“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” from this article… https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330
Claiming spoofing shows this person has limited markets/trading knowledge. Clearly they haven’t watched an order book of any exchange in crypto, equities, or Forex.
This is called scalping or scare walls. Again this is done in every market around the globe.
Here is a professional FOREX trader talking about scalping, how it works, who/why they do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M&list=WL&index=94
TL;DW - they do this to get the price where they want it because they know people are watching the order book (the video is quite enlightening), and the key point that keeps this from being an illegal activity (on regulated exchanges) is THAT THEY DO MAKE TRADES FOR THOSE SIZES eventually. This doesn’t always work and they get stuck in these positions. Risk/reward.
The ironic part about this spoofing idea is Finex is one of the few, if not only exchanges, that offer hidden orders. So people trying to scalp always have to worry if there is a monster hidden order lurking.
Go to the UPDATE: AUGUST 7TH of this story and watch the video he claims proves spoofing and Phil Potter admitting it in the voice over. https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4
I see nothing wrong with what Phil says and no proof of anything in the video. Again this is true on every exchange trading anything of volume in the world. People with large amounts of money move markets, oh the horror. I “technically” do this when I place an order and pull it for whatever reason (scared, mistake, etc.) just not in large sums, but I would if I had large sums.
“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” The crash they are referring to is from the early June ATH to the mid-July correction. A 45-day crash? Well, I am one of those people that went margin long. And many many others who read charts, resistance, support, retracement info. Again, this smacks of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about.
REASON FOR PRICE RISE/BTC GOES UP WHEN TETHERS ARE CREATED
This is absurd. This completely negates everything else, the Japanese currency ruling and them entering the market, Koreans coming into the market in a huge way (they now have the largest exchange by far with close to a Billion traded DAILY, oh and they don’t use Tether at all), the successful hard fork, or the more (positive!) interest from the media and people than ever before in BTC history.
Instead, we are supposed to think that $395 million dollars of tethers are the reason for this rise in a $160+ Billion market cap. 
C’mon people! Look at that volume for the last 30 days. https://imgur.com/a/vKJ5g Also, the overwhelming majority of trade does not exist in Tether but KRW, CNY, USD, JPY.
Tethers are usually created when extra liquidity is needed, be it a crash or a spike. Because more people are trading.
They try to prove Tether boosts the market with this picture in their article. https://imgur.com/a/274SE
The problem is 2 of the last 3 tether dumps coincide with a downturn. In fact, there is nothing in this graph that proves this theory. Also, the last tether dump/price rise coincides perfectly with the news of the majority of miners signaling segwit2x for the first time (search bitcoin or btc around that date).
So do you think the market traded billions of $ at that time because of a $50 million Tether dump or because for the first time in YEARS a solution and path forward became visible??
THEY DON’T HAVE BANKING//NO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS/FAKE TETHERS-TERMS OF SERVICE
In regards to banking, clearly they have some kind of banking and a way for large amounts of fiat to get in and out. The banking is not for you and me but for regional bitcoin exchanges and other large customers.
You know how I know this? If they didn’t the internet would be flooded with Finex withdrawal issues, there would be a price premium on Bitfinex compared to other exchanges, just like Mt. Gox had for so long and also Bitfinex earlier in the year when the banking issues started.
This article explains it very clearly (seriously read this article), it has nothing to do with this controversy, just the banking issue in April.
https://medium.com/@Austerity_Sucks/why-bitfinex-went-from-a-premium-in-its-crypto-usd-pairs-to-now-a-significant-discount-e7be193d7cb0
TL;DR - All of the imbalances discussed (Finex premium) have been a result of USD frictions into Bitfinex. It has been a chain reaction resulting from the initial freeze to the various gradual withdrawal options. As soon as Bitfinex conclusively addresses the USD flow issues, the crypto pair prices will normalize (which they did) with other exchanges that don’t have banking frictions and USDT price will return to par (which it did).
The premiums on Finex and Tether are what would prove something is wrong, yet they are not here. Surprisingly Finex has been at a discount to GDAX and GEMINI recently. Meaning people are willing to take a loss on prices to be able to lend on Finex. This too will normalize as people/bots arb.
Aug 9th… From “arguably” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/895339675120013313
Aug 22nd…. To “admitting” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/900230917196836864
Listen to that audio in the second link, listen carefully. His explanation is perfectly reasonable. Banks don’t work well, consistently, or at all with crypto related companies (marijuana companies too for that matter) especially in jurisdictions that are outside US/Europe. Surprise surprise, this is nothing new. When they find out customers, deposits/wire are cryptos related they pull the plug (a reason why Trex/Polo don’t mess with USD).
Also, they gave their customers a haircut, probably a lot of complaints about the hack to Wells Fargo and other banks. These are the correspondent's banks, not Finex’s, they have banking. This is how they can receive large institutional deposits and withdrawals. Which I bet make up the majority of the fiat deposits and withdrawals.
Classic 80/20 business rule, 20% of your clients are providing 80% of the liquidity plus you are having banking issues (which is expected in crypto-land), so you cut this service to the 80% saving time/resources/headaches for the 20% loss in a single service to them (no fiat withdrawal/deposits- but crypto flows in and out with ease).
Again if they weren’t able to get money in and out there would be a premium, there would be a long line of complaints online. I have no reason (or proof) to believe that money is NOT coming into/out of the exchange.
It makes total sense too, they are the best lending platform, have one of the most liquid exchanges, and have by far the most reliable and best software/servers/UI/order options. You cannot deny this fact, they are constantly a top 3 exchange in volume, even after a hack.
I use Finex (as well as others) because of all those things. Also, they have already been hacked, a second hack seems less likely (IMO, they have more to lose with another hack). They have many big events on the horizon (Ethfinex). Would a company be putting resources into these things if this is all fraud or an exit scam? I find that unlikely. Is this 100% full proof? Of course not, nothing is, especially in crypto, just my reasons for trading there.
Institutional Investors - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-legitimate-institutional-investors-really-coming-onto-bitfinex-s-platform-i-don-t-think-so-cb4ed5175092 Here is what this person doesn’t comprehend, what if these institutional investors are… you ready… here it comes… other exchanges that use Tether, as well as other crypto related businesses. It is only $395 million Tethers. These exchanges (Trex, Finex, Polo) are printing money.
This isn’t “someone” with 100’s of millions of dollars as the article suggests, it’s many people with millions/thousands of dollars. Again this all ignores the fact that many more people have entered the ecosystem this year. This is proven by Coinbase growth, transaction growth, and exchange growth (both in volume and # of exchanges), and growth in crypto-related sub-Reddits.
Yet Bitfinexed is shocked that lending hits ATH’s, but it is perfectly explainable and reasonable based on the evidence and data of gthe ecosystem. Let us not forget BTC is a finite amount, more people are going to increase demand/price, if you think this is a bubble... you haven’t seen anything yet.
The TOS are sketchy and a point of concern but there are two things to keep in mind- It was necessary to word it that way, and the market clearly doesn’t care.
If they had worded it that they will redeem no matter what, they would have money launderers flocking to the service (bogging down resources), plus law enforcement knocking.
Tethers weren’t created to get $ in/out of crypto but to provide a safe haven and liquidity on exchanges that don’t use USD. And I would say they are working perfectly. Very few are withdrawing USDT for USD.
I think it is precisely because of what the co-founder of tether refers to here (and below)… “If you want to convert USD₮ into fiat currency (or vice-versa) at tether.to, you must go through the whole “aggressive” KYC/AML process and get verified. I’ve heard from many who tried and were unable to provide sufficient documentation. Tether’s KYC/AML policies were written by experienced compliance officers and it’s critical that it be done properly and with diligence. It really is about “knowing your customer” and making sure that their uses are legitimate.” This is a perfectly reasonable explanation why people are not lining up to cash out of Tether, and also why large/reputable institutions can (exchanges, investors, etc.).
TETHERS REPLY TO ALL THIS, PLUS UPCOMING AUDIT https://tether.to/tether-update/
Now ask yourself this, would a company that is operating fraudulently have a roadmap of all these new features that no one will ever use if they don’t provide these promised audits as they say they will by the end of the year?
So as of now they have enough runway until the end of the year. I say we give TetheFinex the benefit of the doubt.
While Tether could be operating fractionally (so to could any exchange in crypto btw), there is no proof or evidence of it today. It trades at normalized rates. You can’t just create 100’s of million of dollars without the marketing realizing somewhere.
Sure, you can say this is a confidence game, but so is crypto, so is the USD, so is the concept of money. I see no reason to be more concerned with this risk than the already risky environment we trade in with exchanges.
WHAT IF I”M WRONG? CRYPTO WILL IMPLODE!
No it won’t. Sure there will be a dip maybe even a correction, but there are only 395 million Tethers. People will get out of Tether even at massive discounts (until $0) into crypto because they can’t get USD, but not more than the 395 million tethers circulating (at this time).
At a certain discount people will understand what is going on and stop trading for Tether. BTC + ETH is worth over $100 billion, how many time does the entire amount of USDT have to turn over to cause a massive crash?
What will get hit the hardest are the people left holding tether (if/when they implode) and Trex/Polo/Finex.
To think Polo/Trex would rely so much on USDT that they didn’t fully vet it is absurd as well. Whats more likely, Polo/Trex’s due diligence or this @Bitfinexed person based on conjecture?
I’ve already seen a Forbes contributor try and get ahold of Bitfinexed on twitter. https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/894437272241569792
Could I be wrong about all of this??? Of course, but, I feel I have provided more evidence than the other side. You are the Judge :)
USEFUL INFO
Some from u/udecker - Tether co-founder
Tether.to is who has the backing for the token, not Bitfinex. Bitfinex is a customer of Tether. If Bitfinex wants more Tether, they make a request to Tether, just like all other Tether customers. Tether waits for USD to show up, and when it does, creates the necessary tethers and credits Bitfinex. They both have Tawainese banking so money can flow back and forth easily. (The banking industry in the country of Taiwan are under scrutiny lately because of larger legal issues not involving crypto, but clearly affecting crypto companies)
https://wallet.tether.to/transparency
Tether wasn’t designed to be a profit machine. It was designed to be a utility for the crypto community to provide a stable token (with all the benefits of this). Tether’s business model is this: 1. Generate fees from wire deposits and withdrawals and conversions. 2. Interest income on the reserve.
Bitfinex’s parent company owns a 20% stake in Tether.
People say Tether isn’t being burned. But they are being recycled which is/was always an option.
I hope we can have a productive conversation around this without the usual Gox 2.0, sell it all, Bitfinex is the anti-christ comments with no substance. Give us your opinion and perspective because maybe I am missing something… but, maybe you are too.
This was quite time consuming (just ask my kids and boss, lol) So if you found this info helpful you can donate if you’d like here, if not, no biggie smalls :)
ETH - 0x0181D1C82229BAD741BB6c302ae523aE6DC9a1EE
submitted by bhdgsetyf to ethtrader [link] [comments]

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Trading with the Volume Profile (Expert)

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